Causal Models, Meaning, and Beliefs

Vandenburgh, Jonathan

doi:https://doi.org/10.21985/n2-dser-1184

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Causal Models, Meaning, and Beliefs

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This dissertation develops a causal theory of the relevant alternatives in a situation and applies this theory to the semantics and epistemology of conditionals, the theory of knowledge, and the epistemology of stereotyping. The first chapter presents the theory of causal models and causal alternatives. The second chapter applies this theory to the meaning of conditional and counterfactual sentences, developing a semantic framework for conditionals with familiar logical properties. The third chapter argues that how people change their beliefs when learning conditional information depends on the causal background and provides a model for conditional learning. The fourth chapter uses the theory to develop a causal version of the safety condition for knowledge, where knowledge requires that one's belief be true in all causally relevant alternatives consistent with one's evidence. The final chapter applies the theory to the epistemology of stereotyping, arguing that stereotypical judgments often rely on false causal models of group differences.

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