The Social Consequences of the Fracking Boom: Family Formation, Crime, and Economic Structure in the Upper Great Plains

Owen, Andrew Lowell

doi:https://doi.org/10.21985/n2-ynrp-1252

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The Social Consequences of the Fracking Boom: Family Formation, Crime, and Economic Structure in the Upper Great Plains

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Using the context of the oil and natural gas boom of North Dakota and Montana brought on by advances in hydraulic fracturing technology, this dissertation studies how changing economic conditions affect basic social well-being in a rural setting. Using methods of causal inference, specifically difference-in-differences regressions and comparative interrupted time-series regressions, this dissertation provides three empirical chapters investigating changes in crime rates, adolescent fertility, and broader measures of fertility. In analyzing crime, I use department-level data from North Dakota reported to the FBI through the National Incidence Based Reporting System, and control variables from various federal and state agencies. Results presented in Chapter 2 suggest that the oil and gas boom led to increased crime, driven largely by property crime, and that the oil bust likewise led to decreased crime. The crime increase associated strongly with employment in the oil and gas industry and share of the population that was male and aged 15-34. Using the restricted natality file from the National Center for Health Statistics, Chapter 3 provides strong evidence that the oil and gas boom resulted in increased adolescent fertility. The changing labor structure of the local economy appears to account for these fertility changes, in particular the employment of young men. The final empirical chapter, Chapter 4, also analyzes fertility outcomes, finding that total fertility rates increased during the boom, driven largely by increased fertility to first-time mothers and young mothers. I also find the boom caused a lower mean age at childbearing.

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