Now more than ever, forecasting the outcomes of U.S. elections is an important and challenging task. Traditionally, statistical or political-science methods have been employed to better understand how individuals will vote. Our approach differs in that we use mathematical modeling. Adapting methods commonly used in epidemiology to understand biological disease...
Studies on consolidated democracies have long concluded that there is a positive relationship between socioeconomic status and turnout. The strength of the empirical findings that linked electoral participation to socioeconomic variables elevated this correlation to a law-like principle and made it possible to assume that this electoral behavior would prevail...